The top political-security echelons' recent statements indicating that there won't be significant ceasefires are important for three main reasons. Firstly, these statements communicate Israel's serious intent to achieve its strategic goal: the neutralization of Hamas' rule and its military capabilities. Secondly, they send a clear message to the world and to Hamas, potentially serving as a significant lever in negotiations for the release of captives. And thirdly, the forces are not chess pieces to be played with.
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Israel might agree to short lulls of a few hours at a time, aiming to alleviate international pressure regarding humanitarian concerns and attempting to secure the release of some captives. However, at the current stage, it will not agree to more than that.
Longer ceasefires would only benefit Hamas. They could resupply themselves with water, food, and fuel, which they undoubtedly lack after five weeks spent in tunnels. They could redirect forces to affected areas and bolster their defenses against the IDF. They could change the locations of commanders and captives and potentially smuggle assets from the strip to Sinai.
The demand for a ceasefire arises not only from global concern for the million refugees who fled from the northern strip to its south. There's also a clear element of predicament within Hamas. It's highly doubtful that Yahya Sinwar regrets the attack on October 7, but it's likely that the pressure from the above ground reaches deep into the tunnels.
Even if Sinwar doesn't understand the extent of the damage to his organization, its infrastructure, and its people, he certainly sees (through the media) that Gaza has shifted its stance, and Israel does not intend to stop.
Sinwar prepared for Israel's aerial attack. It's probable that he also prepared for a ground confrontation, but it's doubtful if he estimated that Israel would act with such force. Moreover, it's uncertain whether he understands the true picture of the actual combat: Many of his strongholds were hit, communication infrastructure was affected, and the IDF maintains ambiguity regarding the extent of its forces and their locations.
This allows Israel to deepen the operation, possibly even culminating in complete control over the city of Gaza within a few days. Afterward, the IDF will be required to clear the area, but it will demand a redeployment.
This objective cannot be achieved solely from the air. For years, Israel had a love affair with the combination of intelligence and aerial fire to avoid the need for a ground assault. The successes of the aerial defense system and the fortifications on the border instilled the belief that Israel was protected.
The attack on October 7 shattered these fundamental assumptions and compelled the IDF to return to the basics. Namely, taking the battle into enemy territory to decisively overpower it.
Video: IDF troops in the Gaza Strip / Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
In the weeks preceding the ground operation, there were voices advocating for prolonging the aerial attack. These echoes reverberated from the Prime Minister's Office, which, at that point, had lost confidence in the IDF.
There were also claims that the army was not ready and would struggle to achieve its goals. Reality proved the opposite: Gaza might be a tough nut to crack, but the forces reached it when they were well-prepared, trained, and well-equipped for the task.
The scale and the makeup of forces means that this time, the IDF didn't come for a short operation and then return home; it aims for a clear result. A fist comprising infantry, armor, and combat engineering will receive combat support from the air force and artillery fire.
The ground maneuver was launched after the ground cushioning of the air force, which not only reshaped the Gazan landscape but also assisted ground forces in two significant ways: it resulted in the departure of most of the population from the area, leaving it mostly open for direct confrontation with Hamas, and it hit a significant portion of Hamas' above-ground positions (and in some cases, tunnels).
And yet, these are tough battles, in complex terrain, against an enemy that prepared for this confrontation for 15 years. Hamas fighters have been attacking the IDF with every possible weapon, primarily with anti-tank missiles, RPGs, various explosive devices dropped from drones, and of course – sniper fire and sabotage.
The IDF has suffered 40 casualties and dozens of injuries in this operation, but it has also, eliminated hundreds of terrorists and damaged extensive infrastructures. It's a painful but unavoidable price against the threat and the required achievement, given the disaster that befell Israel on Simchat Torah. Israel had no choice but to enter Gaza to prevail.
This time it's not about a victorious image, but a Herculean and prolonged maneuver. It won't end with Yahya Sinwar's elimination or the Israeli flag atop the Shifa Hospital; it will end when a different governing authority emerges in Gaza. Until then, Israel will need to act in the strip, with varying scopes and forces. The current extensive maneuver, expected to last at least a few more weeks, will be replaced by broad and targeted incursions aiming to prevent Hamas from regaining strength.
It's similar to what was carried out in Judea and Samaria after Operation Defensive Shield, earning the professional nickname "mowing the grass." However, in Gaza, it's not grass; it's an actual forest that needs to be cut and cleared from the ground up. This phase will take months, maybe years, but it's necessary to ensure peace in the Western Negev and prevent a renewed takeover by Hamas in the strip.
Simultaneously, Israel needs to address what comes after. Failure to do so might turn the strip into a Somalia controlled by factions fighting each other and Israel.
If Israel wants to create a different reality in the South, it must act in conjunction with international actors (and Arab states) who currently grant it extensive maneuverability for the war and even press it to win. The horrors of October 7 laid the groundwork for these moves.
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