The truth is that this discussion should not have been public at all. When Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar ordered his murderous henchmen on the morning of October 7 to kidnap Israelis, he planned to achieve exactly what has been unfolding in recent days in Israel. Namely, he got what he wanted in the constant drip of news intended to play with our emotions and squeeze us until we agreed to a deal on his terms.
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Unfortunately, the discussion is taking place, and what emerges from it are very problematic terms for Israel. According to reports, Israel will agree to a three- to five-day ceasefire in exchange for 50 women and children held by the murderers. The release of terrorists from Israeli prisons may also be part of the agreement, which is being mediated by Qatar.
Video: Weapons found at Shifa Hospital / Credit: X/@IDF
Despite the strong desire to see our captives return home, it seems that the contours of the emerging deal involve significant risks and difficult problems. There is also great doubt as to whether Hamas will deliver its end of the deal.
Firstly, even if Hamas honors its word, which is not guaranteed at all, five days of ceasefire is a long time. Although the IDF chief of staff says he can manage the risk, no one, including him, knows exactly what Sinwar has up his sleeve. We already know that we don't know the enemy thanks to the surprise attack on Oct. 7. We have learned the hard way that the intelligence assessments on deterrence and containment of our enemy are divorced from reality. Therefore, with all due deference to the IDF chief of staff, suspending operations for five days is no small thing, and he cannot accurately assess their cost either.
The deal is based on the assumption that Sinwar still has command and control capabilities over his men, who, under his direction, will release the captives. If this chain of command still exists, it means that in five innocent days of ceasefire, he and his murderers can breathe, regroup, and prepare a strategic surprise for the IDF.
In other words, a prolonged ceasefire may significantly change the course of the war in our disfavor. Moreover, there is still the possibility that Hezbollah and/or Iran will decide to exploit the lull to join the conflict. It is also clear that Hamas will exploit it for a global sympathy campaign, showcasing the destruction in Gaza and pressuring Israel not to renew the fighting.
Beyond all this, there are reasons to anticipate that the monster named Yahya Sinwar will deceive us. During Operation Protective Edge, and over the years, Hamas violated ceasefires many times. This time, instead of 10 captives a day, he may release eight or five. Instead of a ceasefire, we will face various skirmishes because of elements that are ostensibly not under his control, of course, he will blame us for compromising Hamas' ability to assert control in the Strip. Sporadic rocket fire will likely continue. What will we do then, when the agreement is violated? We will let it collapse before the other captives are released as planned? We will resume the military offensive just before they are back home.
The answer is negative. We won't have the stamina to forgo the deal even once it is violated. Once we embark on the path of negotiation, no one will easily halt it, even if the implementation is partial. Thus, we will have negotiated for ourselves five days of ceasefire for 50 captives, only to get back 40 or fewer. On top of that, our soldiers will be injured without being allowed to respond, because of the deal, while Hamas is allowed to get back on its feet. This is the wrong path to take.
Therefore, instead of walking right into a trap, we need to continue on the same path we have been on for 45 days. That is, continue to exert pressure on Hamas, which has already yielded results. Its initial demands were much higher: Sinwar gave up on releasing all the prisoners, as his people initially declared, only because Israel continued to pound Gaza. And he will continue to show flexibility if we continue pressuring him.
Not only him but also Qatar. Instead of cozying up to the sheikhdom's ruling family, Israel needs to condemn them, close Al-Jazeera, and make it clear that we demand the return of our people here and now. Qatar has leverage over Hamas, and Israel wields influence on Qatar. It is time to use them and chart a clear path to victory: Sinwar comes out from the bunker with our people surrounding him as humane shields.
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