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Home Analysis

Israel to assess progress in Gaza war only in January

"At the end of January, we will review the situation," an Israeli source tells Israel Hayom. "Before then, the fighting will not stop."

by  Shirit Avitan Cohen
Published on  12-11-2023 12:45
Last modified: 12-11-2023 12:51
LIVEBLOG: IDF releases footage of Sinwar's brother in tunnel; more details on accidental killing of hostages emergeIDF Spokesperson's Unit

IDF forces in Gaza during Operation Swords of Iron, December 2023 | Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit

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Israeli political figures have denied US reports about the US setting an end date for the Gaza military operation against Hamas, but admit for the first time that a reassessment regarding further prosecution of the war will ultimately take place in several weeks.

"At the end of January, we will review the situation," an Israeli source told Israel Hayom. "Before then, the fighting will not stop."

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The second stage of the ground maneuver is focused on mopping up northern Gaza in the Shuja'iyya and Jabalia neighborhoods, as well as Khan Younis in the south. 

Israel has had to maneuver between US demands for more humanitarian aid and preventing harm to uninvolved parties on the one hand, and the need to expand the fighting on the other hand.

"We are cooperating with the Biden administration in both areas – humanitarian aid, which is very important to them and in which we have no disputes with the administration," Israeli sources confirm. Thus, the Kerem Shalom crossing is expected to open in the coming days for inspection and transfer of humanitarian aid to meet the pace of bringing in 250 aid trucks per day. This is because the Rafah and Nitzana crossings are unable to process the volume of aid that the US has been demanding.

Regarding harming uninvolved parties, the sources say that American pressure has actually decreased, since northern Gaza has been mostly emptied of civilians, while in the south the campaign is more focused on the Khan Younis area, with less dense buildings and population. The sources denied claims that while harm to uninvolved Gazans has decreased, more IDF soldiers are getting injured and killed due to "American restrictions." According to them, "there are no such restrictions," and the higher Israeli death toll stems from the nature of fighting on three fronts, in the most difficult areas where Hamas terrorists are located in southern Gaza.

One source revealed that the IDF warning before the start of fighting in the south included "dozens upon dozens of dead per day on the Israeli side," but this has not materialized.

While the Palestinian Authority leadership expects to get control over Gaza after the fighting ends and believes it has US support, Israel has yet to present a full-fledged plan. Netanyahu has already denied reports that the PA in its current form will rule over the Strip, including this past weekend. 

Sources involved in the issue said earlier this week that Israeli defense agencies and the National Security Council only have a general plan: Hamas will not be in Gaza anymore, and neither will the PA unless it is "upgraded." 

The Strip will undergo a demilitarization process, Israel will control it militarily, and the goal is to create local leaderships for civilian governance. A full plan, say the sources, will only be presented once Hamas is defeated and overpowered.

Israeli sources claim that there is no friction with the US and they point to the fact that 200 planes with ammunition have arrived in Israel since the war began. They say dialogue is ongoing with Biden representatives who frequently arrive in Israel and no concrete plan has been presented. 

Meanwhile, the northern front awaits: Preparations in the diplomatic arena for potential military activity in the north are becoming more apparent in recent weeks.

French mediation efforts have already commenced, meetings are expected next week between Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and his French counterpart, and the US is trying through its envoy for the Middle East to prevent the opening of an additional front.

However, Israeli officials believe that Hezbollah will not withdraw from the border through diplomatic means, with ministers telling Western leaders that without a  diplomatic solution, Israel will have to act militarily to distance the Radwan Force threat from the border.

Despite time passed since October and northern residents not returning home as long as Hezbollah sits on the border, Israel claims it has no interest in an additional front parallel to Gaza fighting. "First we have to finish the job in the south," the sources said, distancing Israeli preemptive action to at least January.

Meanwhile, the US is expected to send a multinational naval force to the Red Sea this week to secure trade routes from the Houthi threat, which harms not just Israeli but other nations' shipping. For now, Israel does not plan to deploy a fighting force to remove the missile threat, since it has succeeded in foiling action aimed at Israel, allowing room to postpone addressing the "Yemen problem." However, the harm to shipping lanes requires an immediate address, which the US will provide in a Biden administration initiative to enable Red Sea trade this week.

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Tags: Gaza War

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