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Home Commentary

Transition trouble: Don't wait for a new US president to take office

Israel has so far defied pressure to stop legislation against UNRWA. The bills' final passage will take at least three more months anyway and even a Trump or Harris administration would likely request a freeze. So why wait? The transition period actually poses the greatest risk.

by  Ariel Kahana
Published on  10-28-2024 12:00
Last modified: 10-28-2024 17:27
Jerusalem City Council member launches campaign against donations to UNWRAAP/Khalil Hamra

A Palestinian woman attends a demonstration against a UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) funding gap | Photo: AP/Khalil Hamra

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Israel stands at a diplomatic crossroads that couldn't be more dramatic. The arithmetic is striking: Some 100 Knesset members supported the first vote on the bills to restrict UNRWA's operations over its employees' misconduct on Oct. 7. This isn't just about internal government dynamics– when Opposition leaders Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Gantz, and Yair Lapid align behind such legislation, something fundamental is shifting in Israel's diplomatic landscape.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally, March 9, 2024 (AP / Mike Stewart) AP / Mike Stewart

The international pushback has been swift and coordinated. While Israel's attention was necessarily focused on the Iranian threat, seven key allies launched their diplomatic offensive to torpedo the bill. The foreign ministers of Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Britain didn't mince words: Their "deep concern" about legislation aimed at revoking UN privileges and immunities came with explicit demands – maintain UNRWA's full rights and immunities, ensure complete humanitarian aid access to Gaza.

Washington's approach has been more nuanced but no less determined. Yet here's where Israeli domestic politics adds a fascinating twist: When both the Coalition and Opposition dismiss American concerns, the diplomatic ball lands squarely in the prime minister's court.

Former President Barack Obama waves to the crowd after casting his ballot at an early voting site on Oct. 17, 2022 (AP / Charles Rex Arbogast) AP / Charles Rex Arbogast

At first glance, one might ask: Why pick this fight? Israel already faces multiple diplomatic challenges with America – restrictions on military operations, scrutiny at every turn, sanctions on citizens, constant pressure to end the war. Why not concede on UNRWA, especially with critical military aid like heavy munitions still held up in Washington? And with US elections a week away, wouldn't strategic patience be wiser? But this surface-level analysis misses the deeper Israeli imperative. UNRWA poses not just an urgent problem – it's existential. The evidence of its complicity with Hamas is overwhelming: Hamas effectively controlled UNRWA-Gaza, dictated its operations, merged cells, planted operatives, and continues managing civilian aid distribution in the Strip.

The October 7 connection is even more damning: Dozens of UNRWA employees – UN workers, let's remember – participated in the massacre, celebrated it, or held hostages. Consider the revelation that Hamas's Lebanon leader served as both as an UNRWA school principal and teachers' union chairman – literally a teacher by day; a terrorist leader by night. When a UNRWA employee transports a hostage's body to Gaza, it's not an isolated incident – it's part of a pattern. There are many more such examples.

But UNRWA's most pernicious impact might be ideological. Instead of promoting peace – its UN-mandated mission – UNRWA has become one of the primary engines perpetuating the Arab-Jewish conflict. Its schools across the Middle East teach hostility instead of coexistence. Most critically, by mechanically transferring "refugee status" from the original 1948 refugees to millions of descendants, UNRWA ensures that future generations will choose conflict over peace.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris (2-L), alongside Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff (L), Minnesota Governor and Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz (2-R) and his wife Gwen Walz (R) celebrate after Harris delivered her speech during the final night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, USA, 22 August, 2024 (EPA/Will Oliver) EPA/Will Oliver

While Western nations acknowledge UNRWA's problems, their proposed reforms miss the point. Their immediate concern about food distribution, while valid, sidesteps the fundamental issue. Israel will need solutions for humanitarian aid when UNRWA's role is curtailed, but that's a technical challenge, not a strategic one.

So far, Israel has defied the pressure. The US election timeline is largely irrelevant – passing the bills will take another three months anyway, and even a Trump or Harris administration would likely request a freeze. So why wait? The transition period actually poses the greatest risk – we learned this lesson bitterly with Barack Obama's parting gift of Security Council Resolution 2334, which called Israelis' presence beyond the Green Line illegal. So why wait? Israel's vital interest in restricting UNRWA demands action now. If October 7 taught us anything, it's that postponing difficult decisions can lead to catastrophic consequences.

Tags: Benjamin NetanyahuGaza WarHamasIsraelUNRWA

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