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Home Commentary

Step by step: The dramatic days until Assad's fall

How do these developments affect Israel, Iran, Russia, and Turkey?

by  Israel Shamay/Makor Rishon
Published on  12-08-2024 09:30
Last modified: 12-08-2024 12:41
Step by step: The dramatic days until Assad's fallREUTERS/Orhan Qereman

A woman uses her mobile phone near a damaged picture of Syrian President Bashar Assad as people celebrate, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted him, in Qamishli, Syria December 8, 2024 | Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman

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Opposition groups in Syria continue their relentless advance toward overthrowing Assad's regime and gaining control of the country. Saturday witnessed several dramatic developments across multiple battlefronts.

Video: Syria's prime minister emerges from residence to meet rebels for power handover. Credit: Arab media

In the northwest, Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army forces captured eastern Aleppo and the city of Tel Rifaat, while maintaining an active front against Kurdish forces in Manbij. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control of most of the Aleppo region – including Syria's second-largest and most strategically important city – as well as Homs, the country's third-largest city. During the night, Mohammed Haroun, an AlHadath Saudi correspondent, reported that Assad's forces had completely withdrawn from Homs toward Damascus.

In the northeast, Kurdish forces seized control of the Euphrates region, Deir ez-Zur, rural Raqqa, and – in a development significant to Israel – Abu Kamal, the Syria-Iraq border crossing that had served as a major weapons supply route to Hezbollah. The transfer of the Abu Kamal border crossing – long used by Hezbollah under Assad's rule – to anti-Iranian forces aligns with Israel's strategic interests.

In the south, opposition forces captured the Quneitra and Daraa regions, reaching Damascus' southern outskirts by Saturday evening. Additionally, the Druze in the Sweida region expelled Assad's army troops.

Syrian people and rebels celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, 08 December 2024. Photo credit: EPA/Bilal Alhammoud EPA

In the southeast, US-backed rebel groups moved to capture the Palmyra area, advancing toward Damascus.

In the Syrian Golan, opposition forces attempted to take control of a UN position near the Israeli border. The IDF responded with fire, forcing the opposition forces back and allowing UN personnel to evacuate safely. If the Druze in Jabal al-Druze face danger from opposition forces, the IDF is expected to assist them, as it has done several times before. Reports over the weekend claimed that Iran is evacuating its Revolutionary Guard personnel from Syria.

This morning, officers received notification that Assad's regime had ended, following the quiet capture of Damascus and Assad's escape to an unknown location as opposition forces approached. The US responded that it is monitoring the situation and maintains contact with "regional partners."

In a significant geopolitical development, Turkey notified Russia that it would block Russian naval movements in the Black Sea until the Ukraine war ends. This restriction means Russia can only evacuate its military equipment by air, likely forcing it to abandon significant amounts of weaponry to opposition forces.

According to reports, Syrian President Bashar Assad's location remains unknown, though it was claimed yesterday that he was trying to secure arrangements for a safe escape from Syria. Not unrelated – early morning reports indicate that a plane took off from Damascus as opposition forces took control of the city, changing its course after takeoff to an unknown destination. Another report claimed that on Monday, Assad sent the leader of the Syrian Orthodox Church to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to convey a message to Trump that an opposition victory would pose a serious threat to Syria's Christian community.

Addressing these concerns, HTS leader al-Jawlani, in a Friday interview with CNN, projected a moderate image and portrayed his organization as a nationalist-Islamist group seeking to establish an Islamic Syrian state. Earlier, he sent letters to the country's main minority communities, including Christians, stating his organization had no intention of harming them.

Tags: AssadSyria

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