Evaluating BTC: Historical Correlations and Future Frameworks

Bitcoin’s market behavior is regime-dependent, warranting a deeper dive into historical drivers. A structural trend emerged post-COVID, with Bitcoin exhibiting stronger correlations to equities and behaving more like a high-beta risk asset. Despite this, Bitcoin has repeatedly decoupled from traditional markets, to both the upside and the downside, in response to specific trends. Most recently, BTC showed strong resilience in the face of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs. Going forward, we believe capital flows will likely be expressed through three frameworks: risk beta with dampening volatility, an uncorrelated asset that toes the line between risk and safety, and/or rapid repricing as it becomes digital gold.