Dawn
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03:06 Jan 28, 2026
ISLAMABAD: S&P Global Market Intelligence has projected a strengthening of Pakistan’s macroeconomic outlook in the current and next fiscal years, endorsing the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) projections. Real GDP to expand 3.5 per cent in FY26, before strengthening to 4.4pc in FY27, it said while commenting on SBP’s monetary policy decision that kept benchmark interest rate unchanged at 10.5pc on Monday. This is generally in line with SBP that projected real GDP growth in the range of 3.75-4.75pc in 2025-26, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated momentum in commodity-producing sectors and spillovers to services. This momentum is expected to extend into FY27, aided by earlier monetary easing and ongoing macroeconomic stability. These projections are relatively higher than 3.2pc growth rate projected by the International Monetary Fund last week, down from 3.6pc of its previous estimate. On the external front, the SBP projected the current account deficit to remain within 0-1pc of GDP in FY26. With continued remi...