James Butterfill counters claims about Tether’s solvency, pointing to a multibillion-dollar surplus despite new criticism from Arthur Hayes and S&P Global. Concerns about stablecoin issuer Tether’s financial stability resurfaced this week after BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes warned the company could face serious trouble if the value of its reserve assets were to fall. But CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, pushed back on those claims. In a Dec. 5 market update, Butterfill said fears over Tether’s solvency “look misplaced.” He pointed to Tether’s latest attestation, which reports $181 billion in reserves against roughly $174.45 billion in liabilities, leaving a surplus of nearly $6.8 billion. Read more
Bitcoin’s chance of hitting $100,000 before New Year’s Eve depends on investors’ reaction to the Fed policy pivot, and the market’s response to soaring BigTech and AI company debt. Key takeaways: The Federal Reserve’s move away from quantitative tightening and rate cuts creates liquidity, making fixed-income assets less attractive. Surging tech credit risks, as evidenced by high Oracle debt protection costs, prompt investors to seek alternative, scarcer assets like Bitcoin. Read more
Bitcoin miners face record margin pressure as proxy stocks sink, Kalshi lands $1B funding and Ether derivatives volumes overtake Bitcoin on CME. Bitcoin (BTC) miners are learning the hard way that “number go up” doesn’t always trickle down. Even with Bitcoin prices still elevated by historical standards, mining margins have been sharply squeezed, with some industry analysts describing the current climate as the “harshest margin environment” on record. Balance sheets are shrinking, leverage is being reduced, and companies such as CleanSpark are moving to pay down Bitcoin-backed credit lines. The strain is spilling into public markets. Bitcoin miners and other BTC “proxy” trades have come under heavy pressure, highlighted by the collapse in shares of American Bitcoin. Not every corner of the market is retreating, however. Capital is flowing into crypto-adjacent platforms, with prediction market Kalshi recently raising $1 billion at an $11-billion valuation after a tenfold increase in trading volumes since 2024,...