Dawn
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19:31 Mar 01, 2026
If the war between Iran and the United States escalates, the single biggest economic threat to Pakistan will come from oil. Brent crude settled around $72.5 a barrel on Friday, already up nearly 19 per cent year-to-date, according to CNBC. Rumours are swirling of oil touching $100. For Pakistan, even modest increases carry heavy consequences. For every $10 rise in oil prices, the current account deficit increases by roughly $1.5–$2 billion, explains former chief executive officer of the Pakistan Business Council, Ehsan Malik. “If prices were to climb to $100, the deficit could expand by $5–$7bn on an annualised basis, potentially undoing recent gains that allowed FY25 to post a $2bn current account surplus.” Markets are extremely erratic right now, says energy analyst Syed Rashid Husain. Iran produces roughly 3–3.5 million barrels of oil per day, exporting about 1–1.5m barrels. While this is far lower than the output of the United States (about 13.5m barrels per day) or Saudi Arabia (around 9–10m), even a los...