On the 19th day of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the conflict is being shaped by two interlocking dynamics wherein the nuclear threshold has not been crossed but is increasingly blurred, while the fighting has spread across multiple theatres. Together, these trends reinforce each other, with each escalation raising the nuclear risk even as the grinding nature of the war makes de-escalation harder. The latest escalation underscores this shift. A strike on the Bushehr nuclear power facility, though limited in immediate damage, has pushed the conflict into a more dangerous phase. The absence of a radiological incident has not diminished the significance of the event. It has instead introduced a new risk regarding the possibility of reciprocal targeting of nuclear-linked infrastructure. Similarly, Trump’s plan for seizing enriched uranium stockpiles carries extreme escalation risks. While any such move would almost certainly trigger Iranian retaliation, there are risks with even attempting to seize those stock...
Iran vowed on Wednesday a “decisive” retaliation for the death of its security chief Ali Larijani, firing off a wave of missiles at Israel which said it killed him in an air strike. A barrage of Iranian missiles killed two people near Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv, while Gulf nations intercepted rockets and drones headed for targets including US bases in the region. Larijani is the most prominent figure of the Islamic republic killed since Israel and the United States launched their attacks on Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and igniting a war in the Middle East. “Iran’s response to the assassination of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council will be decisive and regrettable,” Iranian army chief Amir Hatami said in a statement. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which said on Wednesday they launched missiles at central Israel as retaliation, warned in a statement that Larijani’s death would spur further attacks. The “pure blood of this great martyr… will b...
The Pakistan Airport Authority (PAA) has extended airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft till April 24, according to a fresh notice to airmen (Notam) issued on Wednesday. The authority said that Pakistan’s airspace would remain closed to all aircraft registered in India. The Notam issued by Pakistan for barring Indian flights in its airspace till April 24, 2026. — PAA website The restriction would also continue to apply to aircraft operated, owned, or leased by Indian airlines or operators, the Notam said, adding that it also covered Indian military flights. Pakistan’s airspace is divided into two flight information regions (FIRs) — Karachi and Lahore, according to a Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) document from 2022. The Notam applies to both the Karachi (OPKR) and Lahore (OPLR) FIRs. The Notam was issued days before the previous one was set to expire on March 23. India and Pakistan have closed their airspaces to each other’s airlines since tensions between them escalated in late April 2025 in the...