As Iran war odds swing on Polymarket and Kalshi, Sygnum’s Fabian Dori says prediction markets are fast becoming macro tools for crypto desks. Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders. Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday. Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori. Read more
The President of the United States continues to give contradictory signals of escalating the war and winding it down within a few weeks. The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media. The odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, which occurred due to a US troop buildup and comments from the Trump administration that the US was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station. The Polymarket trading volume for a potential US invasion of Iran was about $3.74 million at the time of publication. Read more
United States President Donald Trump said on Sunday that US forces had safely recovered a second airman downed in Iran, calling it “one of the most daring search and rescue operations in US history”. The announcement came as Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel and Kuwait earlier on Sunday, and a day after Trump warned the Islamic republic it had 48 hours to cut a deal or face “all Hell”. “This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies,” Trump said on Truth Social. “He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine,” he added. “This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardise our second rescue operation. “This is the first time in military memory that two US Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND!” Trump asserted. He repeated his clai...