Prediction | Crypto

Prediction market volume scales every month, as resolution infrastructure becomes a bottleneck. Opaque outcomes drive capital to headline markets only. Opinion by: David Azubike, lead analyst at Blocksquare Prediction markets are no longer an experimental corner of crypto. Data now shows something durable: a financial category with sustained volume, diversified participation and increasing institutional attention. Prediction markets are emerging as a new “arbitrage arena” for crypto traders. Monthly notional volume in prediction markets scaled to more than $13 billion by late 2025 from less than $100 million in early 2024 as markets diversified across verticals, according to a joint research report from Dune and Keyrock.  Read more

The plaintiffs characterized the death carveout in a prediction market for the former Iranian Supreme Leader's ouster as "deceptive." A class action lawsuit has been filed against prediction market Kalshi, alleging that the death carveout in the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market was not properly disclosed to users and that the platform failed to pay out winning trades. The plaintiffs said that the death carveout policy was “not incorporated into the user-facing rules summary,” and was not displayed in a way that would notify a “reasonable consumer” of the policy or its effects. “Defendants, themselves, later acknowledged that their prior disclosures were ‘grammatically ambiguous,’” the lawsuit filing said. Read more

Prediction markets are increasingly being framed not as gambling platforms but as vehicles for monetizing information, though founders acknowledged the line can blur.

Prediction markets should pivot from short-term betting and move toward becoming price stability instruments for consumers, Buterin argued. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said he is starting to “worry” about the direction of prediction markets and suggested that they shift to become marketplaces to hedge against price exposure risk for consumers. Prediction markets are “over-converging” to “unhealthy” products that are focused on short-term price betting and speculative behavior as opposed to long-term building, Buterin said in an X post. Instead, onchain prediction markets coupled with AI large-language models (LLMs) should become general hedging mechanisms to provide consumers with price stability for goods and services, Buterin said. He explained how this system would work: Read more

Prediction markets entered the mainstream in 2025, with a fourfold surge in annual trading volume as a handful of venues consolidated control over what is rapidly becoming an institutional-scale product, according to a new report from blockchain security firm CertiK. The sector’s total volume rose from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025, […] The post Prediction markets hit $64 billion in 2025 but reliance on centralized logins has created a critical security flaw appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Dow Jones announced an exclusive partnership to distribute Polymarket prediction data across The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and MarketWatch on the same day Kalshi claimed it had hit $100 billion in annualized trading volume. The juxtaposition captures where prediction markets sit at the start of 2026: simultaneously legitimized as a financial data product and mired […] The post Prediction markets let insiders profit on leaks, yet a massive Dow Jones partnership just validated the rig appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Prediction markets offer traders more upside than holding the underlying spot crypto, but AI bots and accounts with a 100% win rate raise suspicions of insider trading. Blockchain-based prediction markets are drawing in more speculators as traders look for returns that surpass simply holding spot cryptocurrencies, according to a new report. Prediction markets are emerging as a new speculative arena for traders, pitting casual retail participants against data-driven, professional traders, creating “extreme information asymmetry and meaningful arbitrage windows,” according to a Monday report from crypto research company 10X Research. While sports bets account for the lion’s share of activity on these platforms, Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto-outcome related events are presenting more niche opportunities that digital asset traders can’t ignore, according to 10X. Read more

If you open your brokerage this year and a “Markets” tab seems to be sprouting unfamiliar yes/no questions (“Will the Fed cut rates in March?”, “Will a major ETF get approved this quarter?”), you wouldn’t necessarily be hallucinating. The recent regulatory green-light for Polymarket via a cleared path under its newest acquisition of an exchange […] The post Prediction markets are coming to your brokerage appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi surge for the pro-crypto candidate as Trump’s likely Fed chair pick, just as internal Fed reforms spark pushback from veterans. Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi view Kevin Hassett, US President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council director, as the favorite to replace Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chair. The odds of Hassett filling the seat have spiked to 66% on Polymarket and 74% on Kalshi at the time of writing. Hassett is widely viewed as crypto‑friendly thanks to his past role on Coinbase’s advisory council, a disclosed seven‑figure stake in the exchange and his leadership of the White House digital asset working group.​ Founder and CEO of Wyoming-based Custodia Bank, and a prominent advocate for crypto-friendly regulations, Caitlin Long, commented on X: Read more

Prediction markets made a significant appearance in the spotlight in September, with monthly volume more than doubling to $4.28 billion, while memecoin trading on Solana cooled. The question now circling crypto’s risk-taking corners is whether these markets are becoming the new trenches for degens hunting edge and adrenaline. Prediction markets rise Across the prediction market […] The post New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Kalshi plans to use a portion of the funding to scale its technology team, CEO Tarek Mansour said. Kalshi, a prediction market and competitor to Polymarket, has reportedly closed a $185 million funding round that values the company at $2 billion, indicating growing investor appetite for the emerging sector. The round was led by crypto investment company Paradigm, with participation from venture capital companies Sequoia Capital, Multicoin Capital and other investors, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour said the funding will be used to expand Kalshi’s technology team and integrate its prediction contracts into more brokerage platforms. Currently, Kalshi contracts are available through Webull and Robinhood Markets. Prediction markets have gained traction as an alternative to traditional polling, with proponents arguing that they offer more accurate forecasts by aggregating the collective expectations of participants. Founded in 2018 by Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Ka...