Research | Crypto

Rising retail participation incentivizes data-driven, “elite” traders to use “information asymmetry” and spreads caused by casual investors seeking a quick buck, 10x said. Prediction markets are emerging as a new battleground in the crypto economy, where the best-informed traders are competing against casual retail bettors for profits. Most users are behaving more like sports bettors than disciplined traders, according to a Tuesday report from research firm 10x Research, which said they are trading “dopamine and narrative for discipline and edge.” It added: “Accuracy and profit are driven not by the crowd, but by a tiny, informed elite who price probability, hedge exposure, and extract premium from retail-driven longshots.” The rising liquidity and retail participation are incentivizing professional trading desks to increase their prediction market activity and capture the spread and “misinformation asymmetry” arising from this market structure, 10x said. Read more

10x Research says Ethereum faces structural risks as Bitcoin draws most institutional capital, making ETH a potential hedge short amid market caution. As Bitcoin continues to attract institutional treasury capital, Ethereum-focused companies are beginning to run out of dry powder, making the asset a potential shorting opportunity for investors looking to hedge their exposure to the digital asset sector. That was one of the key takeaways from a recent 10x Research report, which argued that shorting Ether (ETH) could be a smart hedge against Bitcoin (BTC). According to the report, Bitcoin remains the primary focus for institutional investment, while Ether exhibits structural weaknesses. The analysts said that “digital asset treasury” narratives around Ethereum have led institutions to accumulate ETH and later distribute it to retail investors — a pattern now breaking down amid a lack of transparency in private investment in public equity (PIPE) disclosures and uncertain capital flows. Read more

Bitcoin treasury firms saw NAV premiums collapse as retail lost billions, but the reset created entry points for a new era of skilled asset managers, say researchers. Net Asset Values (NAVs) in digital asset treasuries (DATs) have collapsed, but this is not as bad as it sounds and can be viewed as an opportunity for savvy investors, according to 10x Research. “The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies,” stated 10x Research analysts in a report shared with Cointelegraph on Friday.  “They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their real Bitcoin value — until the illusion vanished,” they continued. Read more

10x Research prefers the short strangle strategy for the second month as market dynamics point to near-term calm.