FY26 | Pakistan

KARACHI: The grounds for an increase in the policy rate have largely disappeared ahead of the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) upcoming monetary policy announcement, as global oil prices have either remained stable or eased despite heightened tensions in the Gulf, market participants said. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on June 15 for what will be the final policy review of FY26. The only increase in the policy rate during the current fiscal year came in the previous review on April 27, when the SBP raised the benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 11.5 per cent. The increase was attributed to geopolitical tensions following the conflict in April, which pushed oil prices higher and disrupted global supply chains. However, analysts said developments over the past month have reduced concerns over a prolonged conflict. Prospects for a deal between the US and Iran have improved, while a ceasefire remains in place despite sporadic attacks by both sides. Iran also targeted US bases in several...

While macroeconomic stability improved in the first half of fiscal year 2026, the war in the Middle East poses risks to the economic outlook amid heightened uncertainty, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Tuesday. The SBP released its Half Year Report 2025-26 (The State of Pakistan’s Economy) on Tuesday, showing that Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability strengthened in the first half of the fiscal year despite headwinds from uncertainty regarding global trade and domestic floods. However, the report noted that the war in the Middle East poses “significant risks to the macroeconomic outlook”, as supply chain disruptions are likely to affect the inflation trajectory, external trade and remittance flows, and the country’s economic activity, according to an SBP press release. Discussing the outlook for FY26, the report notes that the latest data on high-frequency indicators — including Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), LSM and construction — suggests that economic activity maintained the momentum through Febr...