Eight days into the war between the United States–Israel coalition and Iran, the conflict has settled more firmly into a pattern that began to emerge over the previous 48 hours; a high-intensity confrontation fought largely through missiles, drones and proxy forces and widening steadily across multiple theatres. At the same time, quiet diplomatic activity gathered momentum to contain the widening fallout for the region. The past 24 hours demonstrated that despite the scale of coalition air power deployed against Iran and its allies, Tehran’s asymmetric military capabilities remained largely intact and continued to shape the tempo of the war, along the area stretching from the Strait of Hormuz through Iraq to Lebanon, where attacks on American facilities, shipping lanes, and Israeli military positions have continued in a calibrated but persistent manner. One demonstration of this capability was seen in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed that one of its drones...
The United States and Israel’s war with Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping. The outlook poses a wider global economic threat, as well as a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavourable to foreign entanglements. “The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows,” JP Morgan analysts said in a research note on Friday. The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as ships avoid the vital Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman amid Tehran’s retaliatory attacks. Global oil prices have surged 24 pe...