In a recent Cointelegraph interview, macro investor James Lavish explains why markets are pricing in a quick end to the Iran war — and what could happen if that assumption is wrong. In the latest interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: markets may be pricing in a quick resolution to the Iran conflict — but if that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe. Lavish argued that if the conflict drags on and keeps pressure on oil prices, the result could be a fresh inflation shock, renewed fears of stagflation and a major repricing across global markets. In his view, this scenario would put the Federal Reserve in an impossible position: unable to raise rates aggressively without risking recession, yet unable to cut rates due to persistent inflation. Read more
The conflict in Iran has been escalating following US and Israeli strikes against Iran in February, which sent oil prices higher and crypto and broader markets tumbling. Update: April 1, 1:30 am UTC: This article has been updated to include more details surrounding US President Donald Trump’s comments and background information. US President Donald Trump said the US could wrap up its military campaign in Iran within weeks, claiming the goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been achieved. Speaking to reporters at the White House during an executive order signing ceremony on Tuesday, Trump said the exit could come within two to three weeks because “there’s no reason for us to do this.” Read more
Yields for five-year US Treasury bonds are up 4%, putting a damper on Bitcoin price, which has ended the month much where it started. This month, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 6% after the US and Israel attacked Iran, highlighting Iran’s significant crypto mining activity. Bitcoin price, meanwhile, remains lackluster. Higher 4% yields on US Treasury bonds have added pressure, and investors are seeking less risky prospects amid geopolitical tension. Less appetite for crypto trading has proven problematic for Robinhood. The trading platform’s stock is down 16% on the month, and leadership has announced a stock buyback program. Read more
Digital asset products saw $414 million in outflows last week as inflation fears, US Fed rate hike expectations and Middle East tensions drove a shift toward risk-off sentiment. Crypto investment products saw their first weekly outflows in five weeks last week, with $414 million exiting the market as investors grew cautious over rising inflation risks and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The pullback came as expectations for the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US shifted from potential rate cuts to rate hikes, signaling a tougher macro backdrop for risk assets, CoinShares reported Monday. Total assets under management fell to $129 billion, returning to levels last seen in early February and “broadly comparable to April 2025, during the initial phase of Trump’s tariffs,” CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said. Read more
US Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $171 million on Thursday as market participants feared another weekend escalation in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Update (March 27, 2026, 10:52 am UTC: This article has been updated to include comments from Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged $171 million in outflows on Thursday, their biggest day of redemptions since March 3, when they posted $348 million in outflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the outflows with $41 million, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with $32 million, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) sold $30.5 million, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) sold $24 million, according to data from Farside Investors. Read more
Bitcoin is beating gold during the Iran war, but its dependence on liquidity cycles keeps the safe haven narrative in question. Before the Iran war broke out, Bitcoin spent months trading sideways while gold rallied to record levels. At the time, gold was seen as the go-to safe haven; inflation concerns remained persistent and geopolitical tensions continued to build, while Bitcoin (BTC) failed to live up to that role. Nearly a month after the US and Israel launched the first strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, that view is being challenged. Bitcoin initially fell to $63,176 on the news of the attacks but has since risen about 12% to $71,012, as of Wednesday. Read more
Bitcoin bounced back above $71,000 after US President Donald Trump’s administration sent a proposal to Iran aimed at ending the war. Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $71,000 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after Trump’s administration offered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the war, sparking short-term optimism across risk assets. Key takeaways: Bitcoin bounces 4% to $71,500 after President Trump sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. Read more
Falling tech stock prices and rising bond yields have forced a rush for cash, preventing Bitcoin from gaining any bullish momentum. Key takeaways: Investors dumped gold and bonds for cash as war-driven oil spikes and inflation forced a defensive market stance. Rising yields and a 20% rate hike chance signal a tight outlook, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable amid soaring US debt. Read more
BTC price fell below $70,000 on macro tensions as analyst considered a possible bullish "regime shift" already starting to play out for Bitcoin. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $70,000 at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as macro assets fell over Iran war tensions. Key points: Bitcoin fails to turn $70,000 support as macro selling pressure sparks losses across global assets. Read more