While an Iran ceasefire favors stocks, Bitcoin’s path to $75,000 remains contingent on market trust despite Trump’s volatile diplomacy. Key takeaways: President Trump’s Tuesday deadline to Iran creates a pivotal moment for Bitcoin as it continues to decouple from gold. While a ceasefire could boost equities, Bitcoin’s $75,000 path depends on its role as a hedge against fiscal instability. Read more
Bitcoin found familiar resistance as it crossed the $70,000 mark to hit new April highs, with analysis blaming "profit-taking pressure." Bitcoin (BTC) coiled below $70,000 at Monday’s Wall Street open as analysis blamed profit taking for price inertia. Key points: Bitcoin and stocks wobble as the US trading session begins amid nerves over the US-Iran war outcome. Read more
As Iran war odds swing on Polymarket and Kalshi, Sygnum’s Fabian Dori says prediction markets are fast becoming macro tools for crypto desks. Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders. Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday. Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori. Read more
The President of the United States continues to give contradictory signals of escalating the war and winding it down within a few weeks. The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media. The odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, which occurred due to a US troop buildup and comments from the Trump administration that the US was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station. The Polymarket trading volume for a potential US invasion of Iran was about $3.74 million at the time of publication. Read more
In a recent Cointelegraph interview, macro investor James Lavish explains why markets are pricing in a quick end to the Iran war — and what could happen if that assumption is wrong. In the latest interview with Cointelegraph, macro investor and former hedge fund manager James Lavish issued a stark warning to Bitcoin holders and global investors: markets may be pricing in a quick resolution to the Iran conflict — but if that assumption proves wrong, the consequences could be severe. Lavish argued that if the conflict drags on and keeps pressure on oil prices, the result could be a fresh inflation shock, renewed fears of stagflation and a major repricing across global markets. In his view, this scenario would put the Federal Reserve in an impossible position: unable to raise rates aggressively without risking recession, yet unable to cut rates due to persistent inflation. Read more
The conflict in Iran has been escalating following US and Israeli strikes against Iran in February, which sent oil prices higher and crypto and broader markets tumbling. Update: April 1, 1:30 am UTC: This article has been updated to include more details surrounding US President Donald Trump’s comments and background information. US President Donald Trump said the US could wrap up its military campaign in Iran within weeks, claiming the goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been achieved. Speaking to reporters at the White House during an executive order signing ceremony on Tuesday, Trump said the exit could come within two to three weeks because “there’s no reason for us to do this.” Read more
Yields for five-year US Treasury bonds are up 4%, putting a damper on Bitcoin price, which has ended the month much where it started. This month, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 6% after the US and Israel attacked Iran, highlighting Iran’s significant crypto mining activity. Bitcoin price, meanwhile, remains lackluster. Higher 4% yields on US Treasury bonds have added pressure, and investors are seeking less risky prospects amid geopolitical tension. Less appetite for crypto trading has proven problematic for Robinhood. The trading platform’s stock is down 16% on the month, and leadership has announced a stock buyback program. Read more
Digital asset products saw $414 million in outflows last week as inflation fears, US Fed rate hike expectations and Middle East tensions drove a shift toward risk-off sentiment. Crypto investment products saw their first weekly outflows in five weeks last week, with $414 million exiting the market as investors grew cautious over rising inflation risks and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The pullback came as expectations for the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the US shifted from potential rate cuts to rate hikes, signaling a tougher macro backdrop for risk assets, CoinShares reported Monday. Total assets under management fell to $129 billion, returning to levels last seen in early February and “broadly comparable to April 2025, during the initial phase of Trump’s tariffs,” CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said. Read more
US Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $171 million on Thursday as market participants feared another weekend escalation in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Update (March 27, 2026, 10:52 am UTC: This article has been updated to include comments from Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged $171 million in outflows on Thursday, their biggest day of redemptions since March 3, when they posted $348 million in outflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the outflows with $41 million, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with $32 million, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) sold $30.5 million, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) sold $24 million, according to data from Farside Investors. Read more