Kalshi | Crypto

Kalshi's first move outside the United States is not London, not Singapore, not any of the financial centers that have spent years building crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks. It is Brazil, through XP International and its brokerage arm, Clear, offering prediction markets to Brazilian investors as a “new asset class” anchored at launch to economic events such […] The post Kalshi’s Brazil prediction market launch lands in a country already fighting a betting addiction crisis appeared first on CryptoSlate.

The prediction markets platform argued for an injunction against Ohio authorities, claiming that federal commodities laws superseded state laws on sport event contracts. An Ohio federal court has denied a motion filed by prediction markets platform Kalshi for a preliminary injunction against Ohio state authorities over allegations that the company was operating in violation of gambling laws. In an order filed Monday, US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio Chief Judge Sarah Morrison denied Kalshi’s request for an injunction that would have blocked the Ohio Casino Control Commission and state attorney general from regulating contracts on the platform, specifically for sports betting. According to the judge, Kalshi had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Read more

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are exploring potential fundraising rounds that could value each company at around $20 billion. The post Kalshi, Polymarket Discuss Fundraising at $20B Valuations: Report appeared first on Cryptonews.

The plaintiffs characterized the death carveout in a prediction market for the former Iranian Supreme Leader's ouster as "deceptive." A class action lawsuit has been filed against prediction market Kalshi, alleging that the death carveout in the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market was not properly disclosed to users and that the platform failed to pay out winning trades. The plaintiffs said that the death carveout policy was “not incorporated into the user-facing rules summary,” and was not displayed in a way that would notify a “reasonable consumer” of the policy or its effects. “Defendants, themselves, later acknowledged that their prior disclosures were ‘grammatically ambiguous,’” the lawsuit filing said. Read more

Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was last valued at $11 billion, while Polymarket was valued at $9 billion.

Lawmakers are pushing new regulation for prediction markets after suspiciously timed Polymarket bets on US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns. Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations. Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation. Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Read more

The two separate rulings add new regulatory pressure as prediction markets also face scrutiny over information advantages and suspected insider activity tied to event-driven contracts. Two US federal court rulings have increased the risk that Nevada regulators may seek to halt prediction-market trading in the state after a judge sent a dispute involving Polymarket’s parent company Blockratize and Kalshi back to state court in two separate rulings. A federal judge rejected arguments that US regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fully preempts state gaming laws for prediction markets, according to a Monday order. The judge found that the CEA’s savings clause does not completely displace state authority and that the companies had not shown a basis to block Nevada’s action at this stage. Read more

A federal judge has sent Nevada’s cases against Kalshi and Polymarket back to state court, allowing regulators to seek temporary injunctions.

The prediction platform said it would reimburse users and resolve markets to the last-traded price before the death of the Iranian leader was confirmed. Tarek Mansour, the co-founder of prediction market Kalshi, provided an update, following the platform’s decision to void some positions that were opened after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was confirmed. “We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here,” Mansour said in a post on X. Iranian state media reported the death early Sunday, after an attack launched by Israel and the United States a day earlier. Read more

Prediction markets promised something elegant: put money behind beliefs, and the price converges on reality. The wisdom of crowds, sharpened by skin in the game. No pollsters, no pundits, just probabilities inching toward truth as traders stake capital on what they know. However, the moment those markets matter (politically, financially, and socially), the best information […] The post 200 insider trading probes opened on Kalshi and one quiet change could remake prediction markets overnight appeared first on CryptoSlate.

CFTC chair Mike Selig said the agency established a prediction markets advisory to help catch insider traders, warning there would be consequences. A former contender for governor of California has been banned from Kalshi after betting on his own candidacy last year in violation of insider trading rules, the prediction market platform said on Wednesday. According to a statement from Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, the politician bet about $200 on his candidacy for governor of California and posted about it on X, leading to a five-year suspension on the prediction market platform and a $2,000 penalty. Kalshi did not name the politician, but said he is no longer running for governor and is now running for Congress. Read more

Kalshi revealed its first enforcement actions Wednesday, against a political candidate and an employee of YouTube star MrBeast.

US Federal Judge Aleta Trauger granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction against Tennessee, finding its sports event contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction. A US federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts.  The ruling, issued by Judge Aleta Trauger of the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Thursday, allows Kalshi to continue offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state while its lawsuit against Tennessee regulators proceeds. Trauger found that Kalshi is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that federal commodities law preempts Tennessee’s attempt to regulate its sports markets as illegal gambling.  Read more

Kalshi is looking to have Nevada’s lawsuit heard in federal court, again asserting it is subject only to federal commodity exchange laws. The US state of Nevada has sued Kalshi after the prediction market company lost its court challenge to stop the state’s regulator from taking action over its sports prediction markets. The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit on Tuesday denied Kalshi’s bid to stop Nevada’s gaming regulator from taking action on its sports event contracts, removing a block on the regulator launching a civil suit against the company. After the decision, the Nevada Gaming Control Board promptly filed a civil enforcement action in state court against Kalshi, which it said sought to block the company “from offering unlicensed wagering in violation of Nevada law.” Read more

Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.

Global trading firm Jump will score stakes in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for its market-making services, per a report.

Wall Street–style liquidity is reportedly moving into prediction markets, signaling a shift toward deeper markets, higher volumes and greater institutional participation. Jump Trading, a Chicago-based quantitative trading company, is reportedly set to acquire minority stakes in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, underscoring growing institutional interest in the rapidly expanding sector. The equity stakes would be obtained in exchange for providing trading liquidity on both platforms, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the discussions. While the report did not disclose specific ownership percentages, Bloomberg said Jump’s stake in Polymarket would scale based on the liquidity the company ultimately provides. Read more

Kalshi has seen nearly $170 million in Super Bowl-related bets, and its move to boost oversight comes amid scrutiny of prediction markets by regulators and Congress. Kalshi says it’s expanding its surveillance on its prediction markets platform through an independent advisory committee and partnerships to detect insider trading and market manipulation, just days ahead of the Super Bowl. Kalshi said on Thursday that the committee would give a quarterly rundown to the company’s outside counsel and publish statistics on investigations into suspicious activity on the platform.  It is also teaming up with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs and Daniel Taylor, director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, “to detect, investigate, and address market abuse.” Read more

More than a month after announcing plans to move deeper into prediction markets, Coinbase said it would launch its offering for ”sports, politics, culture and more.” Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced the rollout of prediction markets offering in all 50 US states in partnership with Kalshi. In a Wednesday X post, Coinbase said it was offering trades on “any real-world outcomes across sports, politics, culture and more” following the launch of prediction markets. The announcement followed the exchange’s plans for onchain prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi in December.  Event contracts on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcomes of a variety of topics, from sporting events to US politics, with the probability of each event assigned by user participation. The launch came about a week ahead of one of the biggest sporting events in the US, the National Football League’s Super Bowl championship game.  Read more

The predictions market platform announced two new hires related to state policy efforts and relations with the federal government. Predictions market platform Kalshi said it will open an office in Washington, D.C., and hire “talent from both sides of the aisle” as part of the company’s efforts to expand its US footprint. In a Monday notice, Kalshi said it had hired former Biden administration official John Bivona as the prediction market’s head of federal government relations, and Blake Bee, a former Amazon senior manager of state and local public policy. The move came as many bets on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are under scrutiny by US federal lawmakers and state officials. Read more