Polymarket | Crypto

Polymarket traders are holding back their optimism back for Bitcoin this year, despite many analysts tipping the price to hit $150,000 and above. Prediction market traders on Polymarket are tipping 21% odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, despite many analysts seeing 2026 as a belated bull year for Bitcoin.  According to the current market, “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?” Polymarket shows 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, a price point below its all-time high. The odds fall further at $130,000, with just a 35% probability, while $140,000 has a 28% chance and $150,000 has a 21% chance.  Read more

Some Polymarket users reported that their accounts had been breached and drained, which the prediction market blamed on a third-party provider. Prediction markets platform Polymarket has pinned a series of reported user account breaches on a third-party login tool. In a post to the company’s Discord on Tuesday, Polymarket said that it had flagged and resolved a security issue that impacted “a small number of users,” after some had reported suspicious activity on their accounts. “The issue was caused by a vulnerability introduced by a third-party authentication provider,” Polymarket said. “Polymarket takes security extremely seriously, and the issue has been remediated.” Read more

Polymarket traders price an 86% chance of Lighter’s airdrop by the end of 2025 as the DEX opens wallet allocation forms and redistributes slashed points. Lighter, a perpetual decentralized exchange (perp DEX) and a major rival to Hyperliquid, is fueling airdrop speculation as Polymarket traders bet on a token launch before year’s end. Sebas, also known as Babastianj, a core contributor to the Lighter DEX, announced on the project’s Discord channel Monday that the platform is finalizing key processes ahead of the highly anticipated token generation event (TGE). “We’re in the final stretch of Season 2 and are running data science to remove Sybil, self-trading, and wash-trading points,” he said, adding that all slashed and removed points are planned to be redistributed to the community. Read more

As crypto platforms explore prediction market integrations, retention data highlights why sustaining user engagement remains one of the industry’s most challenging tasks. While attracting new users may not be a core challenge for crypto, keeping them active beyond the first month is far more difficult, and data from prediction markets is spotlighting the issue.  Polymarket retention data, compiled by analytics company Dune and market maker Keyrock, tracked monthly cohorts of new active users and measured the number of users who returned to trade in subsequent months.  According to the report, which sampled 275 crypto projects spanning networks, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, wallets and trading apps, Polymarket’s average retention outperformed over 85% of protocols.  Read more

The CFTC granted the operators of Polymarket, PredictIt, Gemini and LedgerX permission to skip certain recordkeeping requirements.

Polymarket just resolved “YES” on a $16 million market asking whether the Trump administration would declassify UFO files in 2025… even though no documents have been released. The outcome arrived after late-session buying near 99 to 99.9 cents, and a resolution through UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, which recorded multiple disputes before finalization. The oracle pipeline relies […] The post Polymarket faces major credibility crisis after whales forced a “YES” UFO vote without evidence appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Polymarket has begun building an internal market-making unit to provide liquidity as it relaunches in the U.S., echoing Kalshi’s model, whose house desk has already faced criticism and a proposed class action alleging conflicts with customers’ bets. The post Polymarket to Launch In-House Trading Desk That Bets Against Users: Report appeared first on Cryptonews.

The company has approached traders, including sports bettors, about joining the effort as it expands in the US and rival Kalshi faces scrutiny over similar practices. Polymarket is recruiting staff for an internal market-making team that may trade against users on its platform. The company has recently approached traders — including sports bettors — about joining the group, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions. The initiative comes as Polymarket expands its US presence after resolving regulatory issues stemming from a 2022 case, when it paid a $1.4 million penalty to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Read more

Polymarket has secured CFTC no-action relief, has closed CFTC and DOJ probes, has acquired licensed exchange QCX and has begun limited U.S. trading, setting up a regulated relaunch as it links prediction markets to X and attracts political advisers. The post Polymarket Is Back: Crypto Prediction Giant Relaunches in U.S. With CFTC Green Light appeared first on Cryptonews.

Select users in the US will be among the first to access the predictions platform to bet on sports event contracts, following clearance from a financial regulator for a relaunch. Prediction platform Polymarket has begun rolling out its relaunch in the United States, announcing that waitlisted users would be the first to access its US app. In a Wednesday X post, Polymarket said that it would be making its US app available to waitlisted users, beginning with bets on sports event contracts, “followed by markets on everything.” The official launch came about three months after the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter to a crypto derivatives exchange and clearinghouse acquired by Polymarket, laying the groundwork for the launch of its US services. Read more

The first thing many Ukrainians check in the morning is not Instagram or email, it is a war map. DeepStateMap.Live, a volunteer-built OSINT project, shows which villages are under occupation, where Ukrainian advances hold, and where the front looks fragile. It’s a survival tool as much as a news product, funded by donations and backed […] The post Polymarket war bets collide with the maps civilians use to survive appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Cleanspark, Riot, Cipher and Circle rose higher as the odds of a US rate-cut in December reached its highest level of the month on the prediction market. Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month. Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days. Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing. Read more

Crypto majors were slightly red, with BTC down 1% at $86,600 and ETH down 1% at $2,910, while BNB gained 1% to $856 and SOL held steady at $136. Among top movers, MON (+24%), SPX (+13%), and IP (+7%) led the market. In policy and institutional developments, Texas launched its Bitcoin reserve with a $5 million purchase of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, marking the first deployment of its approved $10 million BTC budget. U.S. Bank completed a test of issuing a proprietary stablecoin on the Stellar network, and MoonPay secured a New York trust charter, joining firms like Coinbase and Ripple to expand institutional custody and service capabilities. Polymarket received CFTC approval to reenter the U.S., enabling it to onboard domestic users, brokers, and intermediaries, while Kalshi was blocked in Nevada from offering sports and election markets after a judge reversed an earlier ruling. Klarna introduced its own stablecoin, KlarnaUSD, on Tempo. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security has reportedly been investigatin...

The approval came as the US Senate is expected to soon vote on prospective CFTC Chair Michael Selig as a replacement for acting chair Caroline Pham. Prediction platform Polymarket has received regulatory approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate an intermediated trading platform. In a Tuesday notice, Polymarket said the CFTC issued an Amended Order of Designation, which will allow the company to “operate an intermediated trading platform subject to the full set of requirements applicable to federally regulated US exchanges.” According to Polymarket, the approval will result in the platform onboarding brokerages and customers directly and facilitating trading on US venues. “This approval allows us to operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the US regulatory framework demands,” said Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan. Read more

Polymarket’s onchain prediction data and fan-sentiment feeds will be integrated across UFC events, creating a new interactive layer for viewers. Polymarket has signed a multi-year deal with TKO Group Holdings to become the official prediction market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and Zuffa Boxing, bringing real-time forecasting into live fight broadcasts. A UFC blog post on Thursday said Polymarket will add a data-driven storytelling layer that tracks fan sentiment in real-time, including a “Fan Prediction Scoreboard” that converts crowd expectations into a live readout of the audience’s shifting pulse during each event.  Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction platform where people trade on the outcome of real-world events. The company's founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan, said the partnership will give fans a “new way to be part of the action — not just watching outcomes but watching the world’s expectations evolve with every round.” Read more

PrizePicks has teamed up with Polymarket to let users wager on real-world outcomes, expanding beyond fantasy sports into the growing prediction-market space. PrizePicks, one of North America’s largest daily fantasy sports operators, has partnered with Polymarket to expand into the prediction-markets space — a move that could open new revenue streams beyond its core fantasy sports business. The partnership will integrate Polymarket’s event contracts directly into the PrizePicks app, allowing users to make predictions on outcomes spanning sports, entertainment and cultural events, the companies disclosed Tuesday.  Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said the collaboration could attract millions of PrizePicks users to the emerging prediction-markets ecosystem. Read more

A Columbia study found that up to 60% of Polymarket’s volume may stem from wash trading, raising new concerns about artificial activity in prediction markets. The rapid growth of the prediction market Polymarket may not be entirely organic but instead inflated by artificial trading activity, according to research published by Columbia University. In an 80-page paper titled “Network-Based Detection of Wash-Trading,” which has not yet undergone peer review, Columbia researchers identified extensive wash-trading activity on Polymarket beginning in July 2024. That month, they found that wash trades accounted for nearly 60% of the platform’s total trading volume. “This activity persisted through late April 2025 before subsiding substantially, and once again increased to about 20 percent of volume in early October 2025,” they wrote.  Read more

A Columbia study found that up to 60% of Polymarket’s volume may stem from wash trading, raising new concerns about artificial activity in prediction markets. The rapid growth of the prediction market Polymarket may not be entirely organic but instead inflated by artificial trading activity, according to research published by Columbia University. In an 80-page paper titled “Network-Based Detection of Wash-Trading,” which has not yet undergone peer review, Columbia researchers identified extensive wash-trading activity on Polymarket beginning in July 2024. That month, they found that wash trades accounted for nearly 60% of the platform’s total trading volume. “This activity persisted through late April 2025 before subsiding substantially, and once again increased to about 20 percent of volume in early October 2025,” they wrote.  Read more

Crypto markets turned red, with major tokens falling sharply — Bitcoin dropped 3% to $99,800, Ethereum slipped 4% to $3,210, Binance Coin declined 1% to $933, and Solana fell 3% to $152. Among top movers, Filecoin surged 50%, Zcash gained 20%, Internet Computer rose 20%, and NEAR Protocol climbed 18%. Crypto-related stocks also tumbled yesterday, with MicroStrategy down 7%, Coinbase off 7.5%, Robinhood losing 11%, and Iris Energy dropping 11%. Meanwhile, Donald Trump reaffirmed his pro-crypto stance, calling America a “Bitcoin superpower” and warning of competition from China, according to CoinDesk. JPMorgan estimated Bitcoin’s fair value near $170,000 using a gold-based model, while Google announced plans to integrate prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi. Tether purchased $97 million worth of Bitcoin during the latest dip, consistent with its policy of using 15% of profits for BTC accumulation. Additionally, Robinhood is considering adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet, and Base lead Jesse Pollac...

Google Finance will soon show live data from Polymarket and Kalshi, letting users ask about future events and view changing market odds in search. The post Google Finance Moves to Include Real-Time Prediction Market Feeds from Kalshi, Polymarket appeared first on Cryptonews.