Polymarket | Crypto

Peter Brandt isn’t convinced Bitcoin has bottomed yet, but a significant minority of Polymarket bets suggest there’s some hope: Trade Secrets

Israeli authorities said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after allegedly using classified information to place bets related to military strikes on Iran. Israeli authorities have arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets on the predictions market Polymarket related to Israel striking Iran. In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s Defense Ministry, its internal security service Shin Bet, and police said a military reservist and a civilian were arrested after an investigation found that the reservist obtained classified information to place the bets. The prosecutor’s office will pursue criminal charges for security-related offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. Authorities said the reservist was working for Shin Bet. Read more

Near.AI introduces a secure, private, Rust-based version of OpenClaw called IronClaw, Olas prediction agents unleashed Polymarket. AI Eye.

Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in prediction market Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides.

Global trading firm Jump will score stakes in prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for its market-making services, per a report.

Polymarket is challenging Massachusetts in federal court, arguing that states lack the authority to regulate CFTC-approved prediction markets. Polymarket has filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts, arguing that Congress granted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive authority over event contracts, preventing states from independently shutting down federally regulated prediction markets. Neal Kumar, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, confirmed the lawsuit on Monday, saying the dispute involves national markets and unresolved legal questions that must be addressed at the federal, not state, level. “Racing to state court to try to shut down Polymarket US and other prediction markets doesn’t change federal law — and states like MA and NV that have done so will miss an amazing opportunity to help build markets for tomorrow,” Kumar said, referring to Massachusetts and Nevada.  Read more

Wall Street–style liquidity is reportedly moving into prediction markets, signaling a shift toward deeper markets, higher volumes and greater institutional participation. Jump Trading, a Chicago-based quantitative trading company, is reportedly set to acquire minority stakes in prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, underscoring growing institutional interest in the rapidly expanding sector. The equity stakes would be obtained in exchange for providing trading liquidity on both platforms, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing people familiar with the discussions. While the report did not disclose specific ownership percentages, Bloomberg said Jump’s stake in Polymarket would scale based on the liquidity the company ultimately provides. Read more

Polymarket will migrate from bridged USDC on Polygon to Circle-issued native USDC, reducing reliance on cross-chain bridges as prediction markets expand. Circle Internet Group has partnered with Polymarket to transition the prediction market’s settlement infrastructure to native USDC, replacing bridged stablecoin collateral used for trading on its platform. According to Thursday’s announcement, Polymarket currently uses bridged USDC (USDC.e) on Polygon as trading collateral and plans to migrate to Circle-issued native USDC (USDC) over the next few months. Native USDC is issued by Circle’s regulated entities and can be redeemed one-for-one for US dollars, offering a “capital-efficient” and scalable alternative without relying on cross-chain bridges. Cross-chain bridges are protocols that transfer tokens between blockchains by locking assets on one network and issuing corresponding representations on another. However, secure cross-chain communication introduces trade-offs in security, trust or flexibility that ...

A Nevada judge has temporarily barred prediction market Polymarket from offering event contracts in the state, pushing back against claims that only the CFTC can police those markets. A Nevada state judge has temporarily forced onchain prediction market Polymarket to halt business in the state, with a ruling that challenges the industry’s argument that federal commodities law preempts state gambling rules.  In a Thursday order seen by Cointelegraph, the court granted the Nevada Gaming Control Board a 14‑day temporary restraining order (TRO) against Polymarket operator Blockratize. The order bans Polymarket from offering event‑based contracts to Nevada residents while the case develops. A preliminary injunction hearing is scheduled for Feb. 11. The order leans on Nevada gambling statutes, finding at this early stage that Polymarket’s sports and other event markets constitute unlicensed wagering rather than regulated financial products.  Read more

Bitcoin bets on Polymarket show elevated downside risk in 2026 as analysts point to bearish trends and tight US liquidity conditions. Prediction markets have turned more bearish on Bitcoin after a weekend sell-off briefly pushed prices below $75,000 on Monday. On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $65,000 in 2026 climbed to 72% on Monday, with almost $1 million in volume. Other large wagers included bets on BTC dropping below $55,000 and reclaiming $100,000 by year-end, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively. Read more

The Ethereum founder claims his strategy of betting against extreme market sentiment "usually makes money" on Polymarket.

Polymarket has re-entered the U.S. market following regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a move that could position prediction markets as a new engagement tool for major crypto platforms such as Coinbase, according to a report by Clear Street analyst Owen Lau. The post Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback Positions Prediction Markets as a Coinbase Retention Play: Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.

The spike in Polymarket odds comes just days after United States President Donald Trump said “we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.” Polymarket betters are pricing in a 77% chance that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, marking a 67% increase over the past 24 hours. It comes as the CLARITY Act, a significant crypto bill aimed at providing more clarity around regulations, is still making its way through Congress, with previous delays largely blamed on the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November. Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted the surging Polymarket odds in an X post on Saturday, noting that it came shortly after US Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would not “provide the votes to proceed” to the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included. Read more

Polymarket and similar platforms are considered unlicensed gambling operators, leading to blocked access.

The moves highlight growing uncertainty over whether crypto prediction markets are to be treated as finance or gambling. Update Jan. 20, 12:29 p.m. UTC: This article has been updated to include a paragraph on the details surrounding Portugal’s ban on Polymarket. Hungary and Portugal have taken steps to restrict access to the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, adding to mounting regulatory pressure on the platform across Europe. Hungary’s regulatory authority, Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága, has temporarily blocked access to Polymarket’s domain and subdomains, citing the “forbidden organization of gambling activities.” According to an official notice released Friday, the restriction will remain in place until the authority completes its review. Read more

Betting on political events is illegal in Portugal, and the regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to cease operations in the country.

A trader exploited thin weekend liquidity and automated market-making bots on Polymarket to lock in a $233,000 profit, sparking debate over whether the strategy crossed the line into market manipulation.

On Jan. 9, Tennessee’s sports betting regulator sent a set of letters that, at first glance, looked like the kind of paperwork most crypto natives scroll past. The message was blunt: stop offering sports-related event contracts to Tennessee residents, void unsettled positions, and refund customers by Jan. 31. The recipients, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, sit […] The post Kalshi and Polymarket face a “sports gambling” probe that could void your trades and shut down the market appeared first on CryptoSlate.

US President Donald Trump said the “leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail” as some Polymarket accounts tied to early bets on Maduro’s ouster go silent. US President Donald Trump said the “leaker on Venezuela” has been jailed, a remark that has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets following a series of well-timed bets earlier this month. “The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Wednesday, according to a video posted by The Wall Street Journal. Although Trump did not mention prediction markets, blockchain analysts such as Lookonchain have speculated that the leaker may be linked to a cluster of Polymarket accounts that placed concentrated bets on Venezuela outcomes just hours before the news became public. Read more

The move adds Ukraine to a growing list of countries, including France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland, Thailand and Australia, where Polymarket is already restricted. Ukraine has blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law. The decision was issued by the National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCEC) on Dec. 10, 2025, under Resolution No. 695. The ruling requires internet service providers to restrict access to online resources that organize, conduct or facilitate gambling without a valid license. As part of the enforcement, the domain polymarket.com has been added to Ukraine’s public register of blocked websites, effectively cutting off local access to the platform, local news outlets reported on Monday. Read more