The 10th day of the war began with a development that may shape the trajectory of the conflict more than any exchange on the battlefield. Early on Monday, Iran’s Assembly of Experts selected Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader. The transition that happened without any disruption signalled both institutional continuity and a consolidation of authority at a time when Iran remains under sustained military pressure. Within Iran, the appointment was immediately endorsed by the revolutionary core and the political and military elite that publicly pledged allegiance, while state media framed the succession as a stabilising step that ensured the continuity of the political system despite the wartime environment, and there were no signs of unrest in cities, suggesting public acceptance as well. The acceptance of the new supreme leader extended beyond Iran’s borders as well, particularly among actors aligned with Tehran’s regional network of allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen who moved quickly...
The United States and Israel’s war with Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping. The outlook poses a wider global economic threat, as well as a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavourable to foreign entanglements. “The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows,” JP Morgan analysts said in a research note on Friday. The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as ships avoid the vital Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman amid Tehran’s retaliatory attacks. Global oil prices have surged 24 pe...