Bernstein | Crypto

Monday’s announcement that Texas Governor Greg Abbott set a moratorium on approval of ERCOT-linked data centers pending an audit won’t impact miners’ approved electricity contracts. Bitcoin miners with operations in Texas are not expected to be impacted by a moratorium on approval of data center projects connected to the state’s grid operator ordered by Governor Greg Abbott, Bernstein analysts said Tuesday. Abbott on Monday directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to audit all data centers seeking to connect to the state’s power grid. The duration of the audit was not specified and comes amid increasing public backlash to the pace of data center build-out across the state, The Texas Tribune reported. Bernstein analysts told clients on Tuesday that as most of the Bitcoin (BTC) miners operating in Texas are under contract for approved electric capacity, those operations are unlikely to be impacted by the moratorium. Read more

Bernstein said Congress’ failure to pass the CLARITY Act’s could trigger another leg down for crypto valuations and accelerate policy support from US regulators. The odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s (CLARITY) passage are dwindling as the US Senate is scheduled to begin summer recess at the end of this week, threatening another leg down for cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein. Bernstein said that the Senate’s failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction,” which may result in another leg down for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. “From a tactical standpoint, we expect the crypto market to bottom and start showing momentum towards late Q3 and early Q4 prior to the mid-terms,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph. Read more

Bernstein analysts remain bullish on the Bitcoin mining sector, as deals with third-party providers will be necessary to address the computing power limits of AI data centers. Bernstein said that it remains overweight on the Bitcoin mining sector, citing the growing partnerships between Bitcoin mining companies that are necessary to address the power constraints of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. The investment manager’s Bitcoin mining industry deal tracker registered a new AI-related deal every week in July, with combined deals standing at more than 7.5 gigawatts or the contracted equivalent of $150 billion in multi-year contracts, according to a Thursday research note shared with Cointelegraph.  The analysts said that third-party computing capacity from Bitcoin miners will remain highly valuable as access to power remains the AI industry’s real bottleneck amid growing political pushback against building new US data centers. Read more

The brokerage’s blockchain strategy, including tokenized equities and its Arbitrum-based Robinhood Chain, could reduce its reliance on traditional crypto trading, analysts said. Analysts at Bernstein have raised their price target on Robinhood Markets, based on their investment thesis that the online brokerage’s next phase of growth will be driven by tokenized equities and prediction markets rather than traditional crypto trading. In a Monday research note, Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood (HOOD) stock to $160 from $130 per share and maintained its Outperform rating. HOOD stock was last seen trading around $101. The analysts said prediction markets are poised to become Robinhood’s fastest-growing business, forecasting segment revenue to reach $1.7 billion by 2028, representing a 64% compound annual growth rate. Read more

Bernstein says platforms are bringing exchange, clearing and brokerage infrastructure in-house, setting up potential deals while increasing antitrust and regulatory risks. Prediction-market operators are bringing trading infrastructure in-house, a rapid shift that could trigger a wave of acquisitions across crypto platforms, sportsbooks, brokerages and standalone exchanges, according to analysts at Bernstein.  In a research report on Monday, Bernstein said the industry is going through “operational consolidation,” with major platforms moving to control more of the prediction-market stack. “Every consumer platform that matters has merged the front and back end of the prediction-market stack,” they said. This includes distribution, brokerage, exchange and clearing. That convergence had placed businesses that historically operated in separate industries within a single competitive landscape.  Read more

Bernstein says the 2026 FIFA World Cup could inject billions into prediction markets, with Coinbase and Robinhood positioned to capture a wave of new users. The 2026 FIFA World Cup could mark a breakout moment for prediction markets, with Coinbase emerging as one of the biggest winners, according to a new research report from Bernstein. Published Thursday, the Bernstein analysts estimate the expanded tournament will generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in additional consumer prediction market volume, as 104 matches transform what is typically the slowest period for online sports betting. FIFA expects the month-long tournament to attract roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Matches are scheduled to start today. Read more

The 48-team FIFA World Cup tournament is expected to be the single largest catalyst for online sports betting in history, Bernstein said.

Bernstein said bitcoin's increasingly diversified ownership base supports its long-term store-of-value thesis.

Bernstein is bullish on Bitcoin miners as they increasingly power the AI boom, assigning “Outperform” ratings to TeraWulf and Cipher Digital.

Bernstein Research data shows the RWA market at $51 billion, with tokenized private credit leading and Figure leading RWA platforms with $18 billion in tokenized assets. The tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market has grown to $51 billion, up 42% this year, as private credit becomes the largest segment of the market, according to a Bernstein Research report seen by Cointelegraph. Private credit accounted for roughly 44% of total RWA value, Bernstein said, reflecting growing use of blockchain-based infrastructure for lending and fund structures. The $51 billion valuation sits well above other industry estimates, such as RWA.xyz’s $34 billion figure, highlighting how different analytics providers count tokenized assets. Read more

Bernstein says miners control 27 GW of planned power and $90 billion in AI deals, giving them a strategic edge as electricity becomes the main constraint on data center growth. Bitcoin miners are emerging as an important part of the AI infrastructure supply chain because they control large amounts of power capacity and data center real estate that are increasingly difficult to secure, according to a new research note from Bernstein. Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra estimate that publicly traded Bitcoin miners control more than 27 gigawatts of planned power capacity and have announced more than $90 billion in AI-related agreements covering 3.7 gigawatts with hyperscalers, neocloud providers and chipmakers. An April 29 research brief from RAND said that it expects the US will add approximately 82 GW of additional net available capacity by 2030. Read more

Figure Technology Solutions latest quarterly results showed Bernstein analysts just how different it is from most balance sheet-based fintech lending platforms. Bernstein analysts said Friday that Figure Technology Solutions’ first-quarter earnings report shows that the fintech is fast becoming a company that is unique among blockchain marketplaces. Figure’s May 11 earnings report soundly beat Wall Street estimates on both revenue and EBITDA, with a business that seeks to turn real-world credit assets into blockchain-native instruments that can be traded, funded and financed more efficiently.   As Figures builds out a blockchain-native capital market ecosystem, the analysts expect the company will surprise investors with how it differs from balance sheet-based fintech lending platforms, seeing FIGR stock as a real-time reflection of blockchain loan volumes. Read more

Bernstein points to Figure’s expansion beyond home equity lending into blockchain-based credit, as tokenization begins to scale across broader loan markets. Shares of Figure Technology Solutions have risen nearly 10% over the past month, but the stock still appears undervalued as the company pivots beyond its roots as a fintech lender, according to Bernstein. In a Tuesday research note, the firm reiterated its “Outperform” rating on Figure (FIGR), with a $67 price target, implying roughly 67% upside from current levels, and maintained its previous outlook. Read more

Institutional investors are entering prediction markets as block trades, custom contracts and US regulatory shifts reshape a sector still dominated by retail users. Prediction markets are evolving from retail speculation platforms into institutional-grade financial instruments, driven by demand for precise macro hedging and clearly defined binary outcomes, according to a May 4 report by Bernstein. The report highlights why institutional investors may find these markets attractive — namely, they allow users to hedge specific event risks, such as tariffs, elections and geopolitical developments, using contracts that resolve to simple yes-or-no outcomes. Bernstein pointed to the first bespoke institutional block trade executed on Kalshi last week as a key milestone. A block trade refers to a privately negotiated, large transaction typically arranged between institutional counterparties. Read more

As Bitcoin miner IREN shifts toward AI cloud infrastructure, leveraging a Microsoft deal and GPU expansion, analysts expect mining revenue to decline over time. IREN could become the next major Bitcoin miner to transition into AI infrastructure following its multi-billion-dollar deal with Microsoft, underscoring a broader shift in mining economics, according to a new research report from Bernstein. The Bernstein analysts point to IREN’s rapidly expanding AI cloud division, where around 150,000 GPUs are already contracted, supporting an estimated $3.7 billion in annual revenue run rate once fully functional. A significant portion of this capacity is tied to a long-term agreement with Microsoft, which has committed to using GPU capacity for AI workloads over five years. The deal also includes substantial customer prepayments, helping fund the infrastructure buildout. Read more

Bernstein says Bitcoin’s selloff already reflects quantum risk and that developers still have time to agree on a post-quantum upgrade path. Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk. Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph. The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade pat...

Bitcoin faces a future quantum threat, but Bernstein analysts say risks are concentrated in older wallets and exposed keys, and unlikely to cause existential disruption. Advances in quantum computing could eventually pose a threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, but the risk remains manageable and unlikely to cause existential disruption, according to a new research report by Bernstein. In the report, the Bernstein team — Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra — described quantum computing as a “manageable upgrade cycle” rather than an “existential risk.” Recent breakthroughs, including research from Google showing a significant reduction in the resources required to break modern encryption, have accelerated the timeline for potential threats. However, building quantum computers powerful enough to compromise Bitcoin (BTC) remains years away due to major technical hurdles and high costs. Read more

Bernstein says Figure may be undervalued as loan volumes surge and its tokenized credit platform expands, despite recent stock declines and market volatility. Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-based lending platform that went public last year, may be undervalued at current levels as loan originations accelerate and its tokenized credit marketplace scales, according to Bernstein analysts. In a report published Monday, Bernstein assigned Figure an “Outperform” rating and a $67 price target — nearly double the stock’s recent trading level of around $32. The bullish call follows a surge in lending activity. Figure originated $1.2 billion in loans in March, up 33% from the previous month and marking the first time monthly volumes exceeded $1 billion.  Read more

Bernstein says crypto-linked equities like Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure now trade about 60% below last year’s peaks, but analysts see growth in revenue and earnings through 2027. Broker Bernstein told clients on Monday that the steep selloff in crypto-linked equities had created a more attractive entry point into tokenization and onchain-finance themes, while maintaining bullish ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure. In a note to clients, Bernstein maintained Outperform ratings on all three companies while cutting price targets, arguing the reset had improved the risk-reward profile for investors seeking exposure to onchain finance. Shares of the trio have fallen between 57% and 62% from their 2025 peaks, although Bernstein continues to forecast double-digit growth in revenue and earnings through 2027. The firm lowered its price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $330 from $440, on Robinhood (HOOD) to $130 from $160 and on Figure (FIGR) to $67 from $72, citing near-term pressure and the prospect of weak first...

Analysts say new US stablecoin rules may hit yield distribution, not issuers, as USDC growth in payments and trading continues to accelerate. Circle’s shares sell-off on Tuesday may have been overdone as investors failed to see that the stablecoin issuer’s core business model remains unaffected by the proposed CLARITY Act, analysts at Bernstein said on Wednesday. In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra said markets are conflating “who earns yield” with “who distributes yield.” “Circle earns. Coinbase distributes,” the analysts wrote, noting that the draft legislation primarily targets the distribution of yield to users — not the underlying reserve income earned by issuers like Circle. Read more