Grayscale's research head Zach Pandl said Strategy should sell $3 billion in Bitcoin to cover its cash obligations, but CryptoQuant argued the company has other ways to support STRC. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said he hopes Strategy will sell at least $3 billion in Bitcoin to cover most of the company’s cash obligations for the next two years. In a Saturday X post, Pandl argued that the move may restore market confidence in the company's capital structure. Contrary to his hopes, Pandl said he expects a 50-basis-point increase to the dividend rate on Strategy’s preferred stock, STRC, adding roughly $100 million in annual obligations over two years. Pandl added that this scenario “probably does not help market confidence.” Read more
The asset manager argues Bitcoin's fixed supply schedule does not undermine network security, even as miners face shrinking block rewards after each halving. Fidelity Digital Assets has pushed back against concerns that Bitcoin’s long-term security will deteriorate as mining rewards decline, arguing in a new research report that the network’s economic incentives remain sufficient to secure the blockchain over time. The report, authored by Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, reiterated the view that Bitcoin’s security depends on more than block rewards. Transaction fees, market incentives and other economic forces continue to encourage miners to secure the network and make sustained attacks prohibitively expensive, it said. The findings challenge a longstanding criticism that each quadrennial halving weakens Bitcoin’s security by reducing the issuance of new coins. Critics argue that declining block rewards could eventually erode miners’ incentives unless transaction fees grow enough to offset the shortfall...
Nearly 50,000 BTC shifted to exchanges at a loss while short-term Bitcoin holders' stress level reached 2-year highs. Is BTC headed toward new lows? Bitcoin (BTC) is showing fresh signs of short-term holder capitulation after roughly 50,000 BTC moved to exchanges at a loss over the past day. At the same time, the market capitalization of short-term holders fell to $237.7 billion, its lowest level since October 2024. The rise in loss-driven selling comes as tighter monetary conditions and weakening institutional demand continue to weigh on Bitcoin, as analysts underlined a “deeply unfavorable” environment for BTC. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said Bitcoin's short-term holder (STH) market capitalization fell to $237.7 billion on June 26, its lowest level since Oct. 2, 2024, when it stood near $239.7 billion. Read more
Bitcoin risked turning $60,000 into resistance as BTC price weakness persisted following another tech-driven sell-off in Asian stock markets. Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to reclaim $60,000 on Friday amid continued global market volatility. Key points: Read more
Bitcoin’s trek into new 2026 lows continued as spot BTC ETF outflows, a bearish monthly options expiry and Strategy’s unrealized losses widened its gap with AI-connected stock returns. Key takeaways: Bitcoin (BTC) traded down 9% in three days, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The $58,000 retest triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across bullish BTC leveraged positions. Despite a modest recovery to $59,500, Bitcoin traders remain uneasy as the S&P 500 index and gold prices fully erased their intraday losses. Read more
Anchorage Digital’s latest analysis shows Bitcoin options traders remain defensive as near-term uncertainty persists, though markets are not pricing an extreme downside scenario for Strategy. Bitcoin options traders remain heavily positioned for downside protection, with both crypto-native and exchange-traded fund investors showing elevated demand for downside hedges, according to new research by Anchorage Digital's head of research, David Lawant. The report analyzed options activity across Deribit, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Strategy (MSTR), saying the three markets together provide a broader view of crypto-native, institutional and retail investor sentiment than any single options market alone. Both Deribit and IBIT options markets showed elevated put skew, indicating traders are paying a premium for downside protection rather than positioning for further gains. The report found defensive positioning ranked in the 82nd percentile of IBIT’s history and the 84th percentile of Deribit’s five-...
Bitcoin’s drop to $58,000 lines up with the power-law model’s cycle lows, even though futures market data points to deeper lows for BTC price. Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $58,000 has pushed the price into a zone that long-term power-law models have historically associated with cycle bottoms. The data does not confirm a bottom range, though it shows BTC trading in a price range that has repeatedly marked major lows since 2014. Derivatives data and liquidation levels highlight $55,000 as the next key support level and the $65,000-$68,000 range as the next major upside area of interest. Giovanni's Bitcoin power-law model places the network's long-term trend price near $135,000, making the recent drop to $58,000 roughly 54% below the all-time high and 1.22 standard deviations beneath that trend. Read more