Researchers found that Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives to manipulate spot prices around contract settlement, proposing longer settlement windows as a potential fix. Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement, allowing sophisticated participants to profit at the expense of retail traders. The study examined contracts in which traders bet on whether Bitcoin’s price would end above or below a predetermined level after five minutes. Because the contracts settle using Chainlink price feeds based on Bitcoin’s price at the end of each trading window, traders have an incentive to influence the spot market immediately before settlement. Analyzing trading activity before and after Polymarket introduced the contracts in July 2024, the researchers found sharp increases in Bitcoin spot-market order flow just before settlem...
Bitcoin moved up to its highest levels since June 22 as US PPI inflation numbers provided the week’s second surprise macro data drop. Bitcoin (BTC) saw three-week highs on Wednesday as US inflation data beat expectations for a second day. Key points: Read more
BTC price upside predictions include $68,000 within two weeks and up to $80,000 next month, contrasting with warnings of a 2022 bear-market rerun for the rest of 2026. Bitcoin (BTC) may hit up to $80,000 by August, a new prediction says as data lays out key nearby BTC price levels. Key points: Read more
BTC price action returned to $64,000 on low US CPI inflation but traders stayed wary of rejection at key resistance. Bitcoin (BTC) spiked past $64,000 into Tuesday’s Wall Street open as US inflation saw a surprise sudden downturn. Key points: Read more
Bitcoin RSI continued to copy previous bear markets as a trader predicted that historical BTC price bottom signals would "happen again" in 2026. Bitcoin (BTC) should repeat history and put in a bear-market bottom when a classic indicator hits zero, a trader says. Key points: In an X post at the weekend, Max Crypto went on record to forecast the end of the 2026 bear market when the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) hits a new swing low. Read more
The transfers have raised questions over Trump’s Bitcoin reserve pledge, though deposits to Coinbase Prime do not confirm an impending sale. The US government moved nearly $300 million in seized Bitcoin and Ether to Coinbase Prime on Monday, renewing speculation that the assets could be sold. Data from Arkham shows 3,940 Bitcoin (BTC) (worth $243.95 million) and 30,014 Ether (ETH) (worth $53.09 million) were sent to Coinbase Prime on Monday. The funds were linked to several high-profile US government crypto seizures. “These coin movements were comprised of coins seized from ryan farace (“xanaxman”) and defunct crypto exchange btc-e,” said Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn, referring to the Bitcoin movements. The Ether is linked to Brian Krewson, an Oracle employee implicated in a $54 million crypto storage and money laundering scheme. Read more
Bitcoin bulls faced an uphill struggle to preserve $62,000 as stocks opened down on Strait of Hormuz rhetoric between the US and Iran. Bitcoin (BTC) fell further into Monday’s Wall Street open as markets reacted to the US-Iran escalation. Key points: Read more
A dormant whale transferred BTC worth $188 million after seven years of holding, adding to the growing ratio of whale transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges. A wallet last active when Bitcoin was trading near $6,500 transferred $188 million of its holdings in recent days, its first onchain movement in seven years. With the biggest cryptocurrency now trading at around $64,000 apiece, the whale transferred 2,931 Bitcoin (BTC) from wallet ‘356my’ to wallet address ‘bc1qn’ on Sunday, according to blockchain data platform Arkham. The whale is likely looking at a nearly ten-fold gain on the long-dormant holdings, according to blockchain analytics platform Onchain Lens. Read more